Photo: Alfo Medeiros / Pexels
The WMO said on Thursday, 8 October 2026, that El Niño is likely to keep strengthening, peak in December 2026 and possibly last until February 2027. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo put the chance of it continuing through February 2027 at nearly 100%. It could rank among the strongest El Niño events since 1950, with Pacific sea temperatures heading for record territory.
What the WMO is saying
The warning came from the World Meteorological Organization on 8 October 2026 and was reported by Khaosod English the next day. The WMO expects El Niño to build over the coming weeks, reach its peak in December, and potentially linger until February 2027. Saulo said the odds of it persisting through February 2027 are nearly 100%. The WMO says it could be one of the strongest events seen since 1950.
What El Niño is
El Niño is a natural warming of surface waters in the tropical Pacific. It tends to nudge global average temperatures upward and to shift rainfall patterns. Some regions end up with drought, while others get heavy rain. It comes back every 2 to 7 years.
Record Pacific temperatures possible
The numbers are what make this event stand out. Between October and December 2026, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific could run 3.7°C above normal. The previous record anomaly was 2.6°C, set from November 2015 to January 2016.
| Period | Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly |
|---|---|
| November 2015 to January 2016 (previous record) | 2.6°C above normal |
| October to December 2026 (possible) | 3.7°C above normal |
Global temperatures are already high
Copernicus, the EU's climate service (C3S), reported a global average temperature of 16.96°C for August 2026. That matches the July 2023 figure, which was the hottest month on record at the time.
Health impact estimates
In September, the University of Chicago Climate Impact Lab estimated that this "super El Niño" could cause up to 451,000 excess deaths worldwide between June 2026 and February 2027.
Related headlines in Thailand and beyond
Khaosod English also ran several related stories. We only have the headlines, not the details:
- Super El Niño drought forces Korat farmers to replant rice.
- Thailand warns of a prolonged dry spell amid El Niño.
- Sugar prices are rising worldwide after El Niño crop damage in Asia.
The article itself does not discuss tourism or any specific destination, so check local forecasts as the season goes on.
Information sourced from Khaosod English.